Looking Back: the 2022 WR Draft Class
Well, how did I do?
Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave are the first rookie duo from the same school to have 1,000 yard seasons. Photo: Sports Illustrated
Part of deciding you want to evaluate talent is understanding that you’re sticking your neck out there. In my day to day life, missing a talent evaluation or being flat out wrong hurts my credibility and changes perceptions around me.
Evaluating for the draft is no different. So, let’s look at the last class I did and see how it all stacks up. Note: I don’t think evaluating them after a rookie year is fair, there’s still lots of time for these guys.
Let’s go step by step through this list - we’ll re-rank at the end.
1. Chris Olave - Saints
Stats: 119 TGT - 72 CTH - 1,042 YDS - 14.5 AVG - 4 TDS (15 GM)
I honestly think I pretty much nailed this one. Olave was my favorite receiver coming out because he is such a perfect Z receiver that it’s almost a joke. Long, smooth strider with easy hands and a knack for beating man and zone coverages. I personally thought it was maybe the easiest evaluation I’ve ever done. Total stud. He is better than anyone else on this list (to me).
2. Christian Watson - Packers
Stats: 66 TGT - 41 REC - 611 YDS - 14.9. AVG - 7 TDS
Fully have to give credit to my guy seankolo99 on Twitter - he was on Watson months before anyone else. Had literally been talking about him since like June 2021. Unreal.
But, I think looking back that this was a spot or two too high for Watson but I still would have taken him above the next guy. When he’s on, he’s an elite separator with a crazy size, speed and athleticism combination that just does not exist in most human beings. To take a 46 yard rush to the house at his size is unbelievable. I was pretty disappointed in his inconsistent usage though - who knows what the reason was. Had only 6 games (including 5 in a row) where his snap% was > 80 and also had 6 games of a snap% < 40. Results are mixed so far but I remain high on him.
3. Garrett Wilson - Jets
Stats: 147 TGT - 83 REC - 1,103 YDS - 13.3 AVG - 4 TD
I think Wilson is just one of those players that is both really good and that I just don’t really like watching. It’s fine, he’s still an amazing player with a bright future in the league but the style just isn’t my cup of tea.
Credit where it’s due though: Wilson is significantly better with his physicality than I anticipated and that’s on me for missing that, the YAC translated better than I thought as well. Proven winner of his one on ones and I’ll always respect that.
4. Skyy Moore - Chiefs
Stats: 33 TGT - 22 CTH - 250 YDS - 11.4 AVG - 0TD
First misstep. I really loved Moore’s competitiveness and what an established route runner he is coming out of Western Michigan but he just hasn’t been able to crack that Chiefs rotation yet. Struggled early as a punt returner, muffing a few, but I don’t think he’s ever returned punts before. I’m holding out hope for him and seeing if maybe he can step his role up in his second year, but right now it looks like I had him way too high.
5. Drake London - Falcons
Stats: 117 TGT - 72 CTH - 866 YDS - 12.0 AVG - 4 TD
He’s been pretty good! Impressive both at the catch point and after the catch. He’s a player I came around on late and I’m glad I did. Really really looking forward to seeing him continue to refine his game - there’s a lot left in the tank there but he’s off to a really nice start. No complaints from me, there’s always a home for big guys with good traits and good hands.
5. George Pickens - Steelers
Stats: 84 TGT - 52 CTH - 801 YDS - 15.4 AVG - 4TD
Honestly I think Pickens should have been 4 on this list, looking back. There wasn’t anything about his game that I didn’t like except I thought maybe he wasn’t a top of the line athlete. That was stupid of me, definitely deserved to be higher up. Pickens put up almost identical stats to London on 30 less targets - that’s crazy. The dude has been lights out every time I’ve watched him, he needs to be much more involved in that offense going forward. Total stud, total maniac, great pick by the Steelers, bad process by me.
10. Treylon Burks
Stats: 54 TGT - 33 CTH - 444 YDS - 13.5 YPC - 1 TD (11 GM)
I feel like Burks is just not really a threat outside of any scheme except Tennessee’s. Not a particularly exciting athlete to me and he doesn’t win consistently. There’s a place for him in the league I just still think I had him too high. He was on my do not draft list, so who knows why I put him at 10. Stupid.
The injury squad: Jameson Williams, John Metchie III, Kyle Phillips
Obviously, we’re all wishing John Metchie III well and it seems like he’ll be back for next season early, so I’m keeping an eye on that. Really like him.
Jameson Williams was incredibly disappointing when he did play but I’m not ready to hold that against him yet. There’s still juice there, I think he just needs a full offseason to build chemistry and some strength back.
Kyle Phillips only played 4 weeks but I am going to claim all credit for him when he’s back. Dude looks like a future stud, so shifty and so hard to guard. The clip of the corner vs the Colts here is a favorite.
Guys I should have had Top 10/Didn’t watch:
Jahan Dotson - Commanders
Stats: 61 TGT - 35 CTH - 523 YDS - 14.9 AVG - 7TD (!!!)
He had a really nice year, over 500 yards for the Commanders and made some really nice plays on the ball. Only glazed over his eval so I missed some good stuff, was relatively ambivalent on him but liked the idea of him.
Alec Pierce - Colts
Stats: 78 TGT - 41 CTH - 593 YDS - 14.5 AVG - 2TD
Fell into that same boat, I think I liked him more than I knew but just never bothered to watch him closely other than for like 15 minutes. Good player for Indy, they should be stoked to have him.
Romeo Doubs - Packers
Stats: 67 TGT - 42 CTH - 425 YDS - 10.1 AVG - 3 TD
Really nice piece for the Packers, usage sort of tailed off towards the end. I was on record as being in on him early (post-Cal/Nevada game) but just never committed to having him higher than where he was.
Re-Ranking the fellas:
Chris Olave - No changes needed.
Garrett Wilson - Production and updates to his game speak volumes.
Christian Watson - Still think he might end up the best of the bunch, we’ll see.
George Pickens - Total stud, dominant X if they get him the damn ball.
Drake London - No change.
Kyle Philips - Training camp/limited in season reps is enough for me.
Alec Pierce - Awesome third option with a ton of speed. 3rd in Rookie TGTs (78)
Jahan Dotson - Baller, great hands and improving as a route runner.
Romeo Doubs - Similar to Pierce, just not quite as good. 4th in Rookie TGTs (67)
Skyy Moore - I need to see more. He can shoot back up to top 5 but I need more.
The Lesson?
I gotta stop and think before I place people a little bit more. That was really my downfall here. The goal in 2023 is to #not #let Big Draft get in my head about certain players and trust myself a bit more. We’ll see how it goes.