Grade at the bottom, analysis in the middle.
Details:
Three time First Team All-Big 12 (‘20; ‘21; ‘22)
Born 6/1/2000 (23 in rookie year)
Career Stats: 254 CTH - 2929 YDS - 11.5 YPC - 15 TD
2022 Stats: 107 CTCH - 1129 YDS - 10.9 YPC - 6 TD
Hutchinson is the first of several receivers that I’m working on evaluating for the 2023 class.
To start, Hutchinson has an enormous array of excellent physical attributes. Hutchinson is listed at 6’3” and at times absolutely plays to that size when the ball is in the air.
Hutchinson is also an all around tremendous athlete - it would not shock me to see him run somewhere around 4.45-4.55 and jump 34”+ with proper training. He is also exceptionally good at changing direction in the open field and demonstrates a ton of high-twitch abilities which likely translates to positive 3-Cone and short shuttle times. (more on that later)
At his size, those numbers are going to land him in rare air (looking at anywhere from 8.5-9.2 RAS score, which would be exceptional).
A high RAS, good hands on tape, excellent production and accolades are going to make him a very attractive player come March/April 2023.
But we don’t build players up here, we tear ‘em down.
To start it off, let’s look at some of the good things he does.
I mean, the guy is super twitchy. I also appreciate the fact that he caught this quick screen with his hands and then brought it into his body. The way that players handle their easy catches like this tells a lot about how comfortable they are with the ball in their hands.
Also, it’s worth noting that guys this big (again, 6’3”) typically don’t have that sort of one cut explosiveness or the hand speed that he shows when running (for those of you who aren’t track guys, pumping your hands fast is better). For lack of a better way to put this - he just looks good running with the ball in his hands.
Another thing - that clip and the following show how good his body control is
Outstanding sideline catch and one that demonstrates he both understands scramble drill rules and can work himself to sidelines maintaining his body control. I like that a lot.
This is where the tape starts to get a little messy for me.
Lowkey this should be a terrible rep. The high shoulder/stutter step release is something that freak athletes do and they only ever do it on go routes (speaking from experience). Hutchinson is definitely a freak athlete, so sure. But what bugs me is when he goes to strike the DB’s arm, he uses his left arm to cross over and hit the DB’s arm on his right side. Big no-no, can cause misses and slips. Probably a coaching thing.
But despite this - he gets a ton of separation on a one-man passing concept. Pretty good. Generous TD call but whatever.
This is sort of the perfect play to describe him. Absolutely horrible, horrible release versus a catch defender. Gets totally rerouted and misses his landmark.
But.
He makes an outstanding play on the ball and hauls in a full extension spinning catch. That’s an un-fucking-believable grab, seriously.
Not going to talk about these clips extensively, the notes are all there. I will however speak to the fact that he really doesn’t seem to give a shit about run blocking and he gets overpowered quite a bit.
This sucks on a multitude of levels, but it ain’t the end of the world.
The Grade
Overall, I think Xavier Hutchinson is going to make it as an NFL player.
So let’s talk about it.
His strengths are clear: exceptional athlete, very good in space, great getting in and out of his breaks, elite catching ability and great body control. Good running mechanics and seems to track the ball very well over the shoulder. Exeptional hands overall.
His weaknesses are: poor planning on his releases versus press/catch man, not a physical player at all. Shows lackluster effort and skill in high contact situations. Plays like a battering ram, not a ballerina. Shows an inability to maneuver his shoulders away from contact and opens up his chest - leading to him getting thrown around.
I think he’s going to be a very solid, even good, football player over the years of his career. I’m not sure that he’ll ever make a Pro Bowl but if he lands in a good situation anything can happen. He needs some serious work on his shoulder movement and probably needs to get up to 210 or 212 as well (he’s a little thin for his build).
I’m going to grade Hutchinson out at a 5.6 EDIT: 6.5
EDIT NOTE: As I went back and rewatched and re-looked at his film, I like Hutchinson more than I did. I think his explosiveness and natural ability carry over more than my critiques of his technique.
His Best Fit: A team who needs a Z receiver with the ability to be productive but not dominant quickly. He isn't Chris Olave but he does possess a lot of favorable traits in his size-hands-speed.
Player Comparison: Zay Jones (9.71 RAS). Not sure about this one but it feels okay.